After landing all four winners in a 16/1 fourfold last weekend, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best soccer handicap tips across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data lớn select a 14/1 fourfold…
Bologna lớn win again
Bologna vs Brescia
Bologna got back to winning ways last weekend with a very impressive victory over struggling SPAL, and they face another struggling team here.
That win moved them up to 11th, but they are unfortunate not to be in the top half after 21 games, as they possess a very impressive process (1.71 xGF, 1.44 xGA per game).
Brescia sit rock bottom of Serie A after a 1-0 defeat against AC Milan, their fourth defeat in six league soccer tips of the day.
Their main issue this season has been defensively, as the bottom side have allowed an average of 1.91 xGA per game, the second worst defence in the league.
I expect them lớn struggle greatly to contain this attack-minded Bologna side, and the Infogol model calculates a 69% (1.45) chance of a home win, so the 1.72 (58%) on offer represents good value.
Atleti to avoid defeat
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Saturday, 15:00 GMT
The small matter of the Madrid derby, as table toppers Real Madrid take on an out-of-form Atletico Madrid.
Real Madrid have won their last three league games after an unconvincing 1-0 win at Real Valladolid last weekend, a game in which they created very little (xG: RVA 0.25 - 0.76 RMA).
Over the course of the season, Real sit third in our xG table, but boast the best process (2.23 xGF, 1.10 xGA per game), being very tight at the back, conceding a league low 13 times in 21 matches.
They obviously have plenty of attacking talent at their disposal, but as Andy Brassel said on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, Zinedine Zidane has never got the better of Diego Simeone in a domestic match at the Bernabeu.
Atletico were beaten by Eibar a few weeks ago, and followed that up with a disappointing 0-0 draw against Leganes last weekend, though they won the xG battle on both occasions.
Surprisingly, Atleti sit top of Infogol's xG table after 21 games, and boast the second best process in the league (1.88 xGF, 0.89 xGA per game), with their main issue being taking their chances.
Simeone's side have scored just 22 times this season, though based on the chances created, we would have expected them to score closer to 40 (39.6 xGF), though don't expect an all-out-attack approach here.
Real are odds-on favourites lớn get the win here, but Infogol is expecting a tight game with few goals, so the draw percentage increases with that assumption, meaning we calculate that the hosts have a 48% RMA (2.08) chance of winning, so the recommendation is to lay Real Madrid at 1.86 (54%).